We are worried because we think that "Peak Oil" has arrived, or will within the next two years.

What is Peak Oil?

Peak Oil is not about "running out of oil" - we'll never run out of oil. There will always be oil left in the ground because either it's too hard to reach or it takes too much energy to extract. Peak Oil is about the end of cheap and plentiful oil, the recognition that the ever increasing volumes of oil being pumped into our economies will peak and then inexorably decline. It’s about understanding how our industrial way of life is absolutely dependent on this ever increasing supply of cheap oil.

From the start of the 1900s, plentiful oil allowed a coal-based industrialised society to massively accelerate its “development”. From that time, each year there has been more oil (apart from the two oil shocks in the 1970s when Middle East crises caused worldwide recessions). And each year, society increased its complexity, its mechanisation, its globalised connectedness and its energy consumption levels.

The problems start when we’ve extracted around half of the recoverable oil. At this point, the oil gets more expensive (in cash and energy terms) to extract, is slower flowing and of a lower quality. At this point, for the first time in history, we aren’t able to increase the amount of oil that’s coming out of the ground, being refined and reaching the market. At this point, oil supply plateaus and then declines, with massive ramifications for industrialised societies.

(Taken from the Transition Initiatives Primer)

Read the Peak Oil Crunch report  http://www.peakoiltaskforce.net/

What does this mean for us?

At the same time as supply peaks, the demand for oil soars as India, China and the developing world start to use massively more energy. This means that oil will be scare and prices will increase. In the short term (as this is about to happen now) we can't replace oil with atomic power or renewable energy - it will take years for these other sources of energy to be big enough to replace the lost oil production.

We will be faced with rapidly rising energy prices - and this coupled with higher meat demand from developing countries and increased demand for Biofuels will inevitably force up the price of food.

We are faced with rapid rises in energy and food costs.  Tring in Transition is all about how our community in Tring can cope with this problem and build a sustainable, happy community. With the natural talent and genius we have in Tring, we can do this!

Climate Change

 It is here and now! No controversy about that. Many scientists believe that it is caused by the CO₂ output by humans since the industrial revolution. A minority think it is simply a natural cycle. In a way it does not matter which. C0₂ is linked to global temperature -and has been for the last 400,000 years at least. If we can reduce the human CO₂ output then we can slow down, or even stop Global Warming.

Many experts believe that a 2⁰c increase in global temperatures will start an acceleration of warming through the effect on tundra (methane release) and ocean warming (ice cap melt). If so, then we are not that far away from this happening.

This means that it is crucial for global CO₂ levels to be cut, through action by governments and individuals. We all have our part to play, and we need to reduce our usage of energy quickly. The good thing is that this will also save us a lot of money as energy prices rise. The average household can make substantial cost savings by saving energy.

Use cars less and bicycles and public transport more. Fly only when it is absolutely necessary (not for a long weekend shopping in New York!!). Insulate our homes, turn down room thermostats and use low energy bulbs.  If everyone did this, we would make a massive reduction in CO₂ emissions, and save ourselves a lot of money.

Over the last 400,000 years temperature has mirrored CO2 levels

Over the last 400,000 years CO2 levels have never gone above 300ppmv

Levels are now over 380ppmv - and rising